Yay, It’s Amazon Prime Day 2017! Amazon Prime Day is basically the Millennial version of Christmas in July. Except, Santa and his sleigh have nothing on Amazon. Last year, it was reported that Amazon sold 636 items per second on Prime Day20x Amazon’s typical daily sales. Multiply that by the 86,400 seconds in a 24-hour period and that’s nearly 55 million items sold in a single day – Not bad for a made up holiday! And this year, Amazon’s stretching their third annual Prime Day into a 30-hour affair.

We’ve yet to see any predictions for how much Amazon’s expected to rake in on Amazon Prime Day 2017, but last year’s guesses ranged from $525 million to $2.5 billion with Amazon only revealing that they experienced a 60% increase over Amazon Prime Day 2015. Amazon is notoriously cagey with their numbers, so it’s not likely they’ll release any hard numbers following Prime Day this year.

But for fun, we’ve rounded up all the info we could find to create a little guesstimate for how many items ordered on Amazon Prime Day may be snatched up by porch pirates.

It was reported that 11 million packages were stolen off American’s porches in 2015. In 2014, Berstein Research said Amazon ships 608 million packages annually (this Quora answer pulled out all the best parts of the report). So, likely that data was pulled from 2012 or 2013, which was before Prime Day started. That’s also likely a global number. In the U.S., as of 2016, Amazon accounts for 43% of all online retail sales (and 20% of U.S. shoppers are Prime members!). Another stat that might help us is that the average Amazon order is $84.

Okay, so if Amazon represents 43% of all online retail sales, then odds are good that around that percentage of all packages stolen are Amazon packages, which based on the 2015 number is 4.73 million. That means in our world of mathematical speculations about 0.78% of Amazon packages are scooped up by thieves.

Let’s split the difference on last year’s sales predictions and call it $1.5 billion. $1.5 billion divided by $84 is about 17.9 million packages (Thanks Google calculator!). Amazon did give us a sales per second stat for Amazon Prime Day 2016, which we noted above was nearly 55 million items sold. That breaks down to about three items per package, which sounds pretty reasonable.

So, how many packages would we guess might get swiped on Amazon Prime Day?

0.78% of 17.9 million packages is 139,620 packages.

That’s our best guess, what’s yours? Tweet us.

Of course, we can’t truly know any of this for sure without all the right data. But what we are certain of, is that you can get ready for Amazon Prime Day 2018 by joining the beta program for our smart mailbox and never spend another day at work fretting about the package setting on your porch unprotected.